AI Might Surpass Humans in All Tasks by 2047

The rise of AI has been so unbelievably rapid that within the span of just one year it managed to become perhaps the central topic of discussion in the world of tech as well as in day to day life. The main question that people tend to ask here is how effective AI will be at replacing humans in a wide variety of tasks. It turns out that researchers at AI Impacts tried to figure out the likelihood of this occurring in the future.

The researchers at this organization collaborated with the University of Oxford and the University of Bonn to survey 2,778 experts who have published their thoughts on AI. According to these authors, there’s a 10% chance that AI will outperform humans in every single task you can think of over the course of the next three years.

If the current trend persists, these experts say that the chances of it surpassing human beings by the year 2047 is around 50% with all things having been considered and taken into account. As for human occupations in particular, researchers concluded that there’s a 10% chance of all of them becoming automated by the year 2037.

Translating text, recognizing objects after seeing them a single time, writing basic code in Python, writing fiction that could reach the New York Times bestseller list, creating a payment processing site, and even creating large language models of their very own could become a reality. AI is advancing far more quickly than anyone could have expected, which makes it rather necessary to figure out where things might go from here.

It bears mentioning that these are perhaps the most pessimistic predictions that anyone could make. Optimistic predictions have also come about, with many saying that AI will complement jobs rather than replace them entirely, but the fact of the matter is that the pessimistic outlook is no less likely than the optimistic one. Indeed, 81% of survey respondents believe that AI will be able to talk like human experts within the next 20 years, which would make the respondents themselves obsolete all in all.

Probability of AI surpassing humans in all tasks reaches 10% within the next three years, study.
Photo: Digital Information World - AIgen

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